The scenario analysis has been produced by Quantified Carbon in collaboration with around twenty researchers from five different universities in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Poland, commissioned by the Confederation of Swedish Enterprise. This is the third update of the original scenario analysis, which was first presented in 2020.
The report makes it clear that there are several goal and conflict of interest that policymakers need to address. It is important to keep in mind the overarching purpose of a developed power system—to enable the advancement of Swedish prosperity and facilitate the climate transition. A significant increase in future electricity consumption should be seen as a desirable outcome—an indication that Sweden remains an attractive country for investment and that the industry's plans for phasing out fossil fuels and raw materials have been realized.
It is possible to build a power system that meets the planning target of 300 TWh of electricity consumption in several different ways, but the choices made will lead to different system characteristics and require different conditions. To make informed decisions, a clearly defined vision of the goals to be achieved is necessary.
The report presents several possible scenarios for the Swedish electricity system and provides a broad analysis of the characteristics of these different scenarios, as well as the conditions required to implement them.
A clear picture of a desired development for the Swedish electricity system emerges from the report.